FC Dallas announce end-of-year moves
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Charlotte FC's Kahlina named 2024 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year
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Chicago Fire name Broughton as sporting director
Chicago Fire FC have hired Gregg Broughton as their new sporting director. An executive with over 20 years of experience, Broughton most recently served as director of football for Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Championship from June 2022 to May 2024. He will report directly to Chicago's new head coach and director of football, Gregg Berhalter.
With the international break at hand, we figured we’d take a look at each remaining playoff team and gauge their hopes of winning an MLS Cup. We’ll go from lowest seed to highest seed, starting with the East. Yesterday, Atlanta United. Today, New York Red Bulls.
The path behind
To say the Red Bulls stumbled over the finish line would be the ultimate understatement. Their results weren’t just bad down the final stretch, they were Wooden Spoon worthy. In the nine regular season games following Leagues Cup, they averaged 0.67 points per game. Only Chicago had a worse record over that span.
You can go back further and things are still about as bad as they could be. Over their final 17 games, New York averaged 1.06 points per game. The only teams worse over that span were St. Louis, Sporting KC, New England, Philadelphia, Nashville, Chicago, Toronto and San Jose. None of them made the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs.
The Red Bulls were able to survive though. And despite the poor form, there were still signs things weren’t as bad as they seemed. Their underlying numbers were still among the best in the league over that span. In fact, over the second half of the season, only Portland and Columbus were better by American Soccer Analysis’ “expected points” metric. They were still creating a decent amount of quality chances and limiting their opponents’ chances. Bad luck and bad finishing defined the second half of their season.
That’s in part due to their lack of consistent strikers up top and in part due to the fact they were missing DP attacker Emil Forsberg for a significant chunk of that stretch. With Forsberg back and New York’s outstanding underlying numbers, maybe we shouldn’t have been quite so surprised when the Red Bulls took down Columbus.
Then again, where the hell did that come from? They executed their game plan perfectly and shut down a team many had slated to return to MLS Cup. The Red Bulls were outstanding in both games, and suddenly the Crew are out of the picture. Regardless of the underlying numbers, no one could have or should have reasonably expected them to get the job done, especially not in two games. Here we are, though.
The path ahead
Now, they have maybe the biggest Hudson River Derby of all time in front of them. That’s… concerning. The last time these two met, New York City FC pummeled the Red Bulls in a 5-1 beatdown at Red Bull Arena. We’re not talking about ancient history either. That victory came on Sept. 28. Things will obviously need to be drastically different for New York to make it to the Conference Final.
But, like everyone else in the East, they can take solace in the fact the biggest monsters have already been taken down. Dealing with NYCFC and Orlando/Atlanta is far easier than dealing with Columbus, Miami or Cincinnati. And if Atlanta win, New York would host that Conference Final.
Honestly, the biggest obstacle to overcome here might be the fact they're the Red Bulls. They have… a bit of rep, to put it nicely. A rep that may or not be based on an actual curse. Regardless of the competition, that’s tough to beat.
Can they do it?
If they play like they did against Columbus, of course they can. They were mostly great defensively and routinely found opportunities in transition. Those moments came from either counters or effective pressing. Basically, your normal Red Bulls things with some slight tweaks here and there. That hasn’t typically resulted in post-season success, but it sure clicked against Columbus. Everything is on the table after that. With Forsberg back and starting to operate again at a high level, they’re a totally different team.
Why won’t they do it?
Well, the most recent Hudson River Derby seems to indicate NYCFC know how to handle this team. And their recent loss to Atlanta doesn’t make me feel better about that matchup. Plus, they’d have to go on the road to beat Orlando. None of those matchups are great.
On top of that, the “That’s so Metro” of it all is real and powerful. I’m never counting out a curse. It really seems like Red Bulls’ stuff just doesn’t work in the playoffs. Even with this team operating differently these days, it’s fair to worry. What if the team we saw for the entire second half of the season is the real Red Bulls? What if their moment against Columbus ends up as just a flash in the pan?
What will decide whether or not they do it?
- Does the setup that found them space and opportunities in attack against Columbus work on the much smaller Citi Field pitch? I’m genuinely wondering.
- Does that setup work against teams that aren’t Columbus?
- Can they get contributions from people who aren’t Emil Forsberg? In particular, will Lewis Morgan step up? Even more in particular, can they get consistent contributions from Dante Vanzeir up top? If it’s just Forsberg and Morgan fighting uphill the whole way, the odds feel slim.
- Will the lengthy break between games be a good thing or a bad thing?
- Does the double-Nealis backline hold up?
- Seriously though, are they just cursed?
- Joe Lowery ranked the biggest MLS Cup underdogs.
- Matt Doyle looked at what we learned about the Whitecaps in 2024.
Good luck out there. Don’t let the bad in.
