Leagues Cup predictions: Who will win semifinal games?

A late winner in second-half stoppage time from Philadelphia Union striker Chris Donovan. A three-goal comeback from CF Monterrey in the last 22 minutes. A five-goal outburst from Nashville SC in a 20-minute span. Lionel Messi increasing his Golden Boot lead to cap off a 4-0 win for Inter Miami CF.

It’s safe to say the Leagues Cup quarterfinals didn’t disappoint.

The tournament has been an incredible spectacle from start to finish – and now with just four teams remaining, we can expect more chaos in Tuesday evening’s semifinals.

• Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami CF: 7 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
• CF Monterrey vs. Nashville SC: 9:30 pm ET | Apple TV - MLS Season Pass

What’s going to happen in each of these clashes? And who’s going to come out on top? Let’s take a look.

What the game will look like

One team will try to make it pretty (Miami), while the other tries to make it ugly (Philadelphia).

This match will be the latest experiment in an already fascinating series of soccer-science experiments for this new-look Inter Miami team. In their five Leagues Cup games with an evolved roster under head coach Tata Martino, they are yet to play a team that’s either as talented or as committed to disrupting play as the Philadelphia Union. Jim Curtin’s group can hold the ball for short stretches, but they would much rather push forward quickly in transition after winning the ball just inside your half.

Based on statistics from the MLS regular season, the Union press more than all but five teams and play the fourth-fewest passes per sequence in MLS. They like to move towards goal as quickly as possible and they use an impressive mixture of pressure, compactness and Andre “The One Man Defense” Blake to shut down opposing attacks.

Inter Miami, who will likely take the field in Martino’s fluid 4-3-3 shape, will be tasked with maintaining control and creating chances against one of the best-drilled teams on the continent. They’ll use Messi’s natural gravity and interchanges on the right side between him, Dixon Arroyo and DeAndre Yedlin to try and pull apart what’s shaping up to be a 3-5-2 from Philadelphia. They’ll also try to get Sergio Busquets on the ball as often as possible at the base of midfield to allow him to dictate the game’s tempo and break lines.

How – and when — Philadelphia apply pressure to Busquets may dictate who comes out on top in this game.

While the sample size in MLS is small, the sample size in the Spaniard’s impressive career is not: if you give him even a sliver of space, he’ll split your defensive shape wide open. Cruz Azul and Atlanta United found that out the hard way in Inter Miami’s first two Leagues Cup matches. Really, it was FC Dallas that did the best job of disrupting Busquets out of any of Miami’s opponents so far, pressing out of a 4-2-3-1 shape that tasked Alan Velasco with limiting his room to operate. Dallas still came up short in that game, because, well…Messi.

Given their impressive work rate across the board and their status as one of the best defensive teams in MLS, the Union can do an even better job of closing down Busquets. Sure, they’ll still have to deal with Messi and others going the other way. But they’ll have more than a few chances to win the ball in midfield and feed their attack.

Prediction: Inter Miami win

The Philadelphia Union are better suited to take down Messi and Co. than any of Miami’s previous Leagues Cup opponents for the reasons listed above. Still, it just feels foolish to bet against Inter Miami at this point.

In our heads, we all know they can’t go on winning forever (even though that’s essentially what needs to happen in the regular season for them to qualify for the Audi 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs). But at this point, they’re punishing every opposing mistake and squeezing every bit of juice out of the fact they have the world’s best player. Inter Miami, you’re headed to the final.

What the game will look like

They’re playing at home, but we can expect Nashville to take a back seat in this one, at least in terms of possession. 

While Monterrey approach the game differently than Club América (the last Liga MX foe Gary Smith’s team faced in this competition), Nashville will likely use a similar defensive posture. They averaged 39% possession in that Round-of-16 clash and could hit a similar number in this game. Monterrey’s group of Mexican national team players, combined with former LaLiga mainstay Sergio Canales leading them from the No. 10 spot, will control the ball against Nashville’s back four. 

Fernando Ortiz’s Rayados team likes to play with a quick tempo in possession and in transition. Monterrey are one of the, if not the, most talented teams in Mexico and they’re willing to take risks with their attacking positioning. By pushing their fullbacks high in a 4-2-3-1 shape – especially Jesús Gallardo at left back – they create overloads in the final third. Rapid counterattacks and precise combination play in the attack make them dangerous in every phase of the game.

Up against such a strong attack, Nashville will have to be extremely disciplined, compact and focused to avoid trailing. LAFC, Monterrey’s most recent opponent, failed to stay disciplined towards the end of their quarterfinal meeting and conceded three goals in the last portion of the match. Defending Monterrey is an uphill battle, as LAFC so kindly showed us. Nashville must be sharp on set pieces and defending in a mid or low block to compress as much space as possible.

Now, while they’re the underdogs going into this game, Nashville can absolutely win this game: they may have one of the most lethal attacking tandems on this side of the Atlantic. In Hany Mukhtar, we know Smith has an MVP-level player who thrives in transition. In Sam Surridge, it certainly looks like Smith has a quality No. 9 who can combine with Mukhtar, break into the box, and punish opposing center backs. If they can stay strong (or even mostly strong) in the back, Nashville have the quality to cause real issues for Monterrey in transition.

Prediction: Monterrey win

Nashville’s defense-first approach will frustrate Monterrey – and it’s entirely possible this is a poor stylistic matchup for a team that prefers open games. But given Monterrey have already taken down Tigres, LAFC and a handful of other strong teams on their road to this point, it looks like they can handle whatever is thrown at them. Monterrey will be waiting for a split-second of indecision or one missed marking assignment in the box. That’s when they’ll pounce.