The Houston Dynamo did a lot of what I’d hoped they would do, in sticking with the blueprint that made them both so fun and successful in the back half of 2023; in going out and spending a bunch on attacking upgrades; in keeping Coco Carrasquilla; in getting more minutes for some of the young players on the team.
And the result was an… ok year. Not a disaster, but not great.
In we go:
The El Tri legend was maybe my favorite player in the whole league in 2023 – easily the best No. 8, and the engine of everything that made the Dynamo so special. His ability to play out of traffic and into high-value spots with line-breaking passes off of either foot and his commitment on both sides of the ball… you could not have asked for more.
But he spent last offseason not getting the treatment he needed on some nagging injuries, which meant he spent the first two months of the regular season not playing. When he finally got back onto the field, he clearly wasn’t the same guy he had been. And it wasn’t just the injuries, as he often just sort of drifted through games and didn’t look as invested.
His boxscore numbers took a nosedive, as did his underlying numbers. With the Dynamo still being mostly good (54 points is a good season!) in spite of Herrera’s underwhelming play, it became more and more difficult to imagine them picking up his massive, $5.2 million contract option for next year.
And so they didn’t. I’m sure the decision was made before their Audi MLS Cup Playoffs Round One series against the Sounders, but if it wasn’t, then Herrera’s final act – earning a red card for spitting at the feet of a ref – kind of made the decision for them.
For one year, he was absolutely brilliant. Nothing gold can stay.
Houston were second in the league in possession, third in passing accuracy and ninth in chances created. They were third in touches, second in field tilt – the share of final third passes you hit – and fifth in passing accuracy in the final third.
They did not turn all that into as much clear-cut attacking goodness as they should’ve: Houston scored 47 goals on just 42.5 xG. I’d charitably call both numbers middling.
The flip side is all their possession, field tilt and the rest served a defensive purpose for a team that, even after their mid-season acquisitions, was not equipped to win high-scoring affairs. As such, they were fourth in the league in opponent expected goals on target allowed.
It is a good, winning game model. It would be winning-er if the Dynamo had a few more, uh, match-winners.
The theory was thus: with how the Dynamo play, they were going to be in virtually every game. What they needed to get over the top and become a dominant team was more quality – more individual, match-winning quality – up top. And that means they needed to spend.
To the team’s credit, they did so, with an outlay somewhere in the region of $10 million this summer for DP No. 9 Ezequiel Ponce and U22 Initiative winger Lawrence Ennali. And for a few brief, beautiful moments, it looked like Houston had exactly what they needed to climb into the ranks of the league’s elite.
But Ennali tore his ACL, and Ponce was just ok.
The idea was right, but the execution wasn’t quite where it needed to be.
- Coco Carrasquilla (CM): Rather than replacing Herrera with a new No. 8, the obvious move is to slide Coco inside and get another true attacker to play in the false right winger spot he’d been occupying.
- Artur (DM): Still one of the best in the league, though I suspect they’ll want to selectively rest him next year.
- Ezequiel Ponce (FW): I don’t think it’s wrong to have high expectations for 2025 despite his meh debut half-season.
- Micael (CB): One of the best in the league at his spot, and part of a partnership where the two players perfectly complement each other.
- Erik Sviatchenko (CB): Even as he hits his mid-30s, he still looks like he’s got plenty of gas in the tank.
They’re in contract negotiations with veteran goalkeeper Steve Clark, who’s miserable in PK shootouts but is otherwise one of the league’s best shot-stoppers. I’ll assume they get something done and he’s the starter next year, though I’ve heard whispers it might not be that straightforward. Just note that for later this offseason.
Moving on from that, there is plenty of good news when looking at this roster: Carrasquilla and Artur work well together, and young Brooklyn Raines was consistently very good in his minutes over the second half of the season. That’s quality and some depth in the engine room.
Ponce should get better. Micael and Sviatchenko are written in ink, and there are decent backups to turn to beyond them. Griffin Dorsey is an elite attacking threat on the overlap, and if head coach Ben Olsen wants to go more conservative at that spot, Franco Escobar fits in nicely.
Then there’s the hoped-for stuff: Between Nelson Quiñónes, who missed the full season, and Ennali, the Dynamo will have two young, fast, dynamic, goal-dangerous left wingers who will essentially be new additions. Quiñónes hopefully returns before the season begins, and Ennali does sometime around June, I’d guess. Can both of those guys end up close to 100%?
Will Ibrahim Aliyu develop? Will Ponce actually look like a record signing next year? Can Amine Bassi be more box dangerous – both in terms of finishing plays off and pure chance creation – if he’s retained as a No. 10?
That “if” becomes huge depending upon what the DP plan is. Parting ways with Herrera opens one spot for sure, and another is occupied by Sebastián Ferreira who, upon Ponce’s arrival, became probably the most “surplus to requirements” DP in the league, full stop. He’s got one more guaranteed year left on his $2.2 million deal, which is a lot. Do they plan to buy him out? Is it a possibility for the summer?
My guess is they’ll aim for the latter, and so Herrera’s DP spot will be used on an attacker to replace Carrasquilla – that false right winger spot I’d mentioned earlier.
Get that right and Houston’s long climb to the top could be damn near complete.
